by Cedric Hughes, Barrister & Solicitor with weekly contributions from Leslie McGuffin, LL.B.

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Fatal Crashes and the Search For A Black Swan

Neil Seeman, a senior resident in health system innovation at Massey College, University of Toronto and an adjunct professor of health services management at Ryerson University, is looking for a “Black Swan.” He defines a “Black Swan” as a “rare, extreme idea, or an extreme event …that is prospectively unpredictable but carries with it enormous positive, or negative, consequences.” In short, it’s a solution. His search caught the attention of Road Rules because the problem he wants to resolve is how to reduce motor vehicle deaths in Canada to near zero in five years.

His search is on for two reasons. The first is that it’s the right thing to do. As he puts it, “Motor vehicle deaths should be eliminated.” Despite steady downward trends in the numbers of Canadian fatalities and injuries from motor vehicle crashes, the statistics—approximately 3,000 fatalities and 15,000 serious injuries a year—are still unacceptable.

The second reason is the budgetary crisis in our hospitals and health regions. Something has to give. Between extremely wasteful but preventable death and injury from motor vehicle crashes and ballooning chronic illness from an aging population, eliminating the former has to be the preferred choice for easing this burden.

Mr. Seeman’s quest caught our attention because of one method he has chosen for finding the solution: a newspaper article in the National Post for the purpose of “crowd-sourcing”—i.e., inviting readers to suggest their ideas for solving this problem. Crowd-sourcing seemed worth the try for two reasons. The first is that while the overall downward trends in both Canada and the United States are good, the regional variations are “huge”—7.0 annual deaths per 100,000 in Ontario compared to 16.4 per 100,000 in the Yukon. This suggested a need for tailored solutions.

The second reason for “crowd-sourcing” is the “two heads are better than one” rationale or as he puts it, “in a policy foxhole, I’d prefer 1,000 people with average IQs to one genius…[geniuses being] hard to spot, and [possibly] “too certain of their own brilliance to embrace new ideas.” Readers were invited to email or upload their ideas “with the potential for very high positive impact relative to estimated investment.” For a fascinating and inspiring read through a wealth of ideas touching on everything from law enforcement, punishment and deterrence, to new technologies in vehicle, road, and signage design, and driver training, education, and behaviour modification go to www.nationalpost.com/secondopinion.

Understanding why the trends are downward also offers a potential solution. While Mr. Seeman quotes Barbara Harsh of the US Governors Highway Safety Association as saying, “We don’t really know why fatalities are trending down,” his second article cites the following list of “multiple causes, including but not limited to the recession (which keeps people off the road), new laws, the beneficial effects of rear brake lights and cameras, improved seat belts and airbags, anti-rollover technology and mandated ignition interlock devices in several jurisdictions for people convicted of impaired driving.”

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See: http://ideas.4brad.com/robocars-are-future

Robotic cars will solve most of our transportation problems. Very green (low fuel consumption), low cost, more efficient and far safer...

Once they start to be deployed and show that they are safer there will be a very fast adoption rate. Over the course of 5-10 years society will adopt an attitude towards human drivers that is similar to how we view drunk drivers today. Think in terms of MAHD - Mothers Against Human Drivers.

The primary problems to solve for deployment will be legal (how to insure) which probably means first deployments will be in China, India or Singapore where governments will be able to mandate a solution.

 
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